Pizza Delivery
Once Saddam is gone, what's our plan? We fly in, oust him (presumably in 2 months or less) and then what? Paul Wolfowitz, a/k/a the reason we're about to invade, feels this way:

'''You hear people mock it by saying that Iraq isn't ready for Jeffersonian democracy ... [w]ell, Japan isn't Jeffersonian democracy, either. I think the more we are committed to influencing the outcome, the more chance there could be that it would be something quite significant for Iraq. And I think if it's significant for Iraq, it's going to cast a very large shadow, starting with Syria and Iran, but across the whole Arab world, I think.''

Wolfowitz is obviously aware that nation building (that damn phrase) is a messy business filled with uncertainties. He is, nonetheless, optimistic that a democratic Iraq (whenever it shows up) will be influential throughout the region. Condi Rice assures us that the, "US will be 'completely devoted' to the reconstruction of Iraq as a unified, democratic state." (quoting Financial Times story) Continuing, for a moment, with Wolfowitz:

"I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Iraq, properly managed -- and it's going to take a lot of attention, and the stakes are enormous, much higher than Afghanistan -- that it really could turn out to be, I hesitate to say it, the first Arab democracy, or at least the first one except for Lebanon's brief history ... [a]nd even if it makes it only Romanian style, that's still such an advance over anywhere else in the Arab world."

While there are no specifics, we now know what the endgame in Iraq is. At the minimum, Romanian-style democracy. Does Iraq resemble Romania? Or does it more resemble Yugoslavia (a/k/a Croatia Serbia Bosnia -erzegovina Macedonia Kosovo Montenegro Albania Yugoslavia)? How many troops and how many years and how many dollars will it take to accomplish this task? I realize that Lindsey has esitmated that the invasion would cost $200 billion, but that's not my question. I think we need to address these issues especially given our conduct in the aforementioned Afghanistan. While there wasn't a lot of time to plot out the aftermath of Afghanistan, there is with Iraq. But let's set that aside for the moment and imagine that everything has gone to plan and we now have a thriving democracy in Iraq. Will it cast a "shadow" over the rest of the arab world? Will its neighbors rise up in democracies? Do we want a wave of revolutions in the middle east? The shadow idea reminds me of the domino theory concerning Vietnam. I don't give the "shadow" concept much creedence. Why hasn't Cuba thrown off Communism under the shadow of the US? Why hasn't Iran abandoned fundamentalism under the shadow of Turkey? Why hasn't Syria? Egypt? Why hasn't Pakistan converted itself on the model of its former province Bangladesh? Countries aren't football teams. They don't copy each other from week to week.

Staying in the hypothetical for a minute. Iraq has created its democracy and has had successful elections. What will be the reaction of the totalitarian regimes in Iran, Saudi and Egypt? Will they sit idly by? Or will they move to strengthen their regimes both within and outside their borders? In the upheaval after WWII, Russia pushed itself forward and created the Soviet Union in order to secure its safety in Europe. What will Iran and Turkey do with their Kurdish populations while the newly independent Iraqi Kurds secure some seats in the Iraqi parliament?

Will the new Iraq make peace with Israel?

Will the Arab Street consider Iraq simply a pawn of the totalitarian US? These are the questions of an amateur spitballing at his keyboard. All of them and more are variables that must be considered as we take steps in the middle east.
- posted by levinson @ 9/26/2002 12:03:00 PM